How Scripps News interprets and reports on polls
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LEARN MOREPosted: 11:05 a.m. EST Nov 6, 2023
We may be about a year out from the 2024 presidential election, but we're already getting some insight into how voters may lean.
According to a new poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, former President Donald Trump — the likely Republican presidential nominee — leads President Joe Biden in five of six key battleground states that could swing next year's election. Trump is currently favored by 4 or more points in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while President Biden only holds a 2 percentage point lead in the swing state of Wisconsin.
Of the six battleground states — all of which Biden carried in the 2020 election — the poll shows he has lost significant ground among Black and Hispanic voters, with many saying President Biden's policies have hurt them personally. And while women in those key swing states still favor Biden, men side with Trump by a margin twice as large.
Black voters, which have long predominantly fueled Democratic candidates, are now showing 22% support for the former president in those states, a number unseen in modern politics. Meanwhile, it appears the more diverse the state, the more likely Trump is to lead, with President Biden only holding that small lead in Wisconsin, the least diverse of the six states.
Despite Trump's four criminal indictments and President Biden leading in the fundraising front, voters have credited Trump's policies — specifically on the economy — for positively impacting them. If the election were held today, the poll has Trump winning more than 300 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed to take the White House.
